2016-03-10GMAT作文机经整理

GMAT机经之2016-03-10GMAT作文机经内容如下：

　　1.柠檬涨价– 3.5 JJ 21

　　本月原始

　　V1:citrus fruite 近几年售价持续走高，从几年前的5分变成28分了。过去11年里，只有1年的天气对citrus生长不利。价格飙升都是果农的错，而且政府应当严格实施priceregulation防止价格进一步升高。(by saphone)

　　V2 今天考的 作文考了个 an editor in a local newspaper: citrus fruit 10年来价格从3cents 飙到了现在的50cents， 但是这10年来只有一年是有weather issue， 所以author 认为citrus fruit grower should be responsible for the increasing price, and strict price regulations are needed to avoid the price flation.( by cellin000)

　　>>>考古原题 (OG13第91)

　　The following is taken from an editorial in a local newspaper:

　　"Over the past decade, the price per pound of citrus fruit has increased substantially. Eleven years ago, Megamart charged 15 cents a pound for lemons, but today it commonly charges over a dollar a pound. In only one of these last 11 years was the weather unfavorable for growing citrus crops. Evidently, then, citrus growers have been responsible for the excessive increase in the price of citrus fruit, and strict pricing regulations are needed to prevent them from continuing to inflate prices."

　　Discuss how well reasoned ... etc.

　　>>>参考思路

　　1. Causal oversimplification：天气并不是唯一影响因素，比如环境护，加工价格上升，人力成本上升，或者通货膨胀，Monetary inflation, increased distribution and labor costs, or alterations in supply and demand conditions the growers’desire for increased profits.

　　2. 充分条件: Only way to combat increased price is through government intervention.

　　3. 无关假设：天气好 果树的产量一定高。因为种植柑橘的农民已经动用了可用的资源了，产量无法再多

　　4. 错误类别 or Hasty generalization：柠檬是不是可以橘类水果类比，或者说，柠檬有其特殊性，譬如柠檬都是进口的，比较贵。

　　>>>参考例文

　　In this editorial the author argues for the imposition of strict pricing regulations in order to deal with continued inflation of prices of citrus fruit. The need for such regulation is supported by the author’s contention that citrus growers have been unnecessarily raising prices of citrus fruit in the past. The evidence for this allegation is the fact that the price of lemons at Megamart has increased from 15 cents per pound to over a dollar a pound during the preceding 11-year period. The author maintains that this increase is unjustifiable because weather conditions have been favorable to citrus production in all but one of those years. This argument is flawed for several reasons.

　　First and foremost, the author assumes that the only factor that influences the price of citrus fruit is the weather. Other factors such as monetary inflation, increased distribution and labor costs, or alterations in supply and demand conditions are completely ignored as possible sources for the increase. The charge that citrus growers have unnecessarily raised prices can be sustained only if these and other possible factors can be completely ruled out as contributing to the price increases.

　　Since the author fails to address these factors, the recommendation calling for strict pricing regulations can be dismissed out of hand as frivolous.

　　Second, the author assumes that the only way to combat increased prices is through government intervention. In a free enterprise system many other means of affecting the pricing of goods are available. For example, boycotting a product and thereby influencing supply and demand conditions of the commodity is an effective means of influencing the price of the product. In a free market economy the call for price regulation by the government should occur only when all other means to rectify the problem have been exhausted.

　　In conclusion, the author’s argument is unconvincing. To strengthen the argument it would be necessary to show that the only factor influencing the price increases is the growers’ desire for increased profits.(333 words)

　　2.Olympic foods– 3.5 JJ 22

　　本月原始

　　V1: 有一个理论，the cost of processing is decreasing in years. for example, the costs of a 8-by-6 inches photograph(还是什么别的相纸)is 50 cents in 1970, while the costs is 20 cents in 1984. Then 推断出，costs一直降低，然后Olympic Foods is approaching and we could minimize the costs and maximize the profits. (by Mengranxue)

　　V2: 坐稳 ： 麻烦整理菌考古一下原文哦，构筑就不去找来抄了，是说Olympic Foods 的costs会降低，因为长时间积累的经验会降低成本，类比了一个color film processing的例子，它的print的成本就在过去几十年里降了讲很多，然后又说公司马上要20周年庆了，所以可以相信未来的costs会降低，profits会升高。(by jcharlotte)

　　>>> 考古原题

　　The following appeared as part of an annual report sent to stockholders by Olympic Foods, a processor of frozen foods.

　　“Over time, the costs of processing go down because as organizations learn how to do things better, they become more efficient. In color film processing, for example, the cost of a 3-by-5-inch print fell from 50 cents for five-day service in 1970 to 20 cents for one-day service in 1984. The same principle applies to the processing of food. And since Olympic Foods will soon celebrate its twenty-fifth birthday, we can expect that our long experience will enable us to minimize costs and thus maximize profits.”

　　>>> 参考思路

　　1. 错误类比：The food industry is not analogous to the color film industry. 食品行业与彩色胶片行业不能等同。

　　2. 因果关系——忽略他因：Other factors that may contribute to the cost decline of the printing cost should be considered and ruled out. 彩色胶片例子中的成本降低不一定是因为组织学习增加效率，还可能是技术改进、原料价格下降、福利增加激励员工等。

　　3. 无根据假设：The conclusion of the argument is based on a gratuitous assumption that the company can minimize cost and maximize profit because the company has been conducted for 25 years. 因为 (1)不是有经验就可以节约成本 (2)不是cost下降profit就会增加，只有在销量不减少或者增加的情况下才成立

　　>>> 参考范文

　　Citing facts drawn from the color-film processing industry that indicate a downward trend in the costs of film processing over a 24-year period, the author argues that Olympic Foods will likewise be able to minimize costs and thus maximize profits in the future. In support of this conclusion the author cites the general principle that “as organizations learn how to do things better, they become more efficient.” This principle, coupled with the fact that Olympic Foods has had 25 years of experience in the food processing industry leads to the author’s rosy prediction. This argument is unconvincing because it suffers from two critical flaws.

　　First, the author’s forecast of minimal costs and maximum profits rests on the gratuitous assumption that Olympic Foods’ “long experience” has taught it how to do things better. There is, however, no guarantee that this is the case. Nor does the author cite any evidence to support this assumption. Just as likely, Olympic Foods has learned nothing from its 25 years in the food-processing business. Lacking this assumption, the expectation of increased efficiency is entirely unfounded.

　　Second, it is highly doubtful that the facts drawn from the color-film processing industry are applicable to the food processing industry. Differences between the two industries clearly outweigh the similarities, thus making the analogy highly less than valid. For example, problems of spoilage, contamination, and timely transportation all affect the food industry but are virtually absent in the film-processing industry. Problems such as these might present insurmountable obstacles that prevent lowering food-processing costs in the future.

　　As it stands the author’s argument is not compelling. To strengthen the conclusion that Olympic Foods will enjoy minimal costs and maximum profits in the future, the author would have to provide evidence that the company has learned how to do things better as a result of its 25 years of experience. Supporting examples drawn from industries more similar to the food-processing industry would further substantiate the author’s view.

　　3.化妆品公司– 3.7 JJ 23

　　本月原始

　　有个做化妆品的公司，在美国很差，想跟一个美国的折扣店公司合作，认为合作就可以提高收入和利润，攻击点很多，比较简单(by ljayc030111)

　　疑似考古

　　A letter from CEO of Kalloni’s:

　　Out luxury, environmental friendly cosmetic products are well known and successful in Europe, but we hardly sell in the US market. I recommend partnering with Mega Beauty, a major distributor of 20 national discount brands in over 1500 discount stores in US. With its network,I believe that it can provide best prospects for Kalloni’s long-term prospects and profitability. (原题目应该和这个差不多，印象中机经好像有)

　　我主要攻击的点：

　　1. Mega Beauty代理的是discount品牌，而且都是在低廉的打折商铺。Kalloni是主打luxury的化妆品品牌，所以用Mega Beauty作代理商不但不一定会Boost sales因为去打折商铺的customers不会willing to pay premiums for luxury cosmetics，而且会从此降低Kalloni的形象(从高档化妆品perceived as cheap one) — 没有完全用七宗罪里面的套，但是从商科的角度看，反应就是这点错得 明显。

　　2. Nocomprehensive analysis of the fundamental reasons why Kalloni’s did not sell well previously. 如果是其他因素导致了poor sales performance, 例如美国的law对some ingredients in their products有restriction，或者美国的顾客现在主要preference不在luxury, environmental friendly的产品，那么partnership也不会有expected result

　　3.No causal link between partnership and future profitability: 未来的external市场情况还有公司internal operation可能有问题，even if partnership是正确的strategy, 这些因素还是会jeopardize 公司长远盈利能力。所以premature to conclude that…

　　>>> 参考思路

　　1.无理由假设：奢饰化妆品和低端化妆品的受众不同，销售方法也不同，不能认为两者的合作可以促进高端化妆品的销售。有可能高端化妆品与低端产品合作之后，影响高端产品在消费者心目中的形象，从而影响销售量。

　　2.时地全等:从现在的发展情况无法推出未来的发展趋势，所以说两者的合作会对公司长期发展有帮助的说法是错误的。

　　3.因果关系——忽略它因：影响利润的因素很多，还包括生产成本，与mega beauty合作的成本等，不能简单认为两者合作就一定对未来的利润有帮助。